Mexico will impose tariffs on around 1,400 imported products from countries with which it does not have a trade agreement, according to Mexican government officials, in a move that industry sources say signals alignment with the US but could have “mixed effects” for the steel industry.
Key takeaways:
- Mexico plans to impose new tariffs of 10-50% on 1,400 products from countries without a trade agreement to bolster domestic production.
- The move is seen as an attempt to align with the US ahead of USMCA renegotiations but could have mixed effects on the domestic steel industry.
- Despite government efforts to fortify the sector through tariffs and import restrictions, Mexican steel prices continue to decline.
Mexico’s new tariff plan
The proposed tariffs will range from between 10 and 50%. And will target mostly Asian countries, multiple news outlets report. Chinese cars are also expected to receive a 50% tariff in 2026.
Currently, Mexico imposes a 20% tariff on Chinese automotives.
“Let us stop importing what we can produce here,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo said in a press conference Wednesday, September 10. “That is why tariffs are being raised within the framework of the World Trade Organization for all countries with which we do not have a treaty.”
The tariffs will include 1,400 products, the Undersecretary of Revenue Carlos Lerma Cotera said at a press conference on Tuesday September 9. And will combat trade imbalances with other countries.
“We are [imposing tariffs] because we are interested in [helping] the textile industry to fully recover, the shoe industry to fully recover,” Sheinbaum Pardo said September 10. The planned tariffs will also counter “the effects [on] the automotive industry…as a result of the tariffs imposed by the United States.”
Fortifying the domestic Mexican steel industry
Mexico is currently subject to a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium, a 25% tariff on auto parts and a 25% tariff on automobiles by the US.
Year to date, Mexican steel exports to the US were down by 20.2% compared with 2024 at 1.1 million tonnes. This is according to the most recent data published by Mexican steel association Canacero. Overall exports slipped by 14.1% to 1.56 million tonnes year to date compared with 2024.
The additional tariffs on automobiles will allow “more vehicles [to be] produced in Mexico and fewer [to be] imported,” the president said.
Previously, Sheinbaum Pardo hinted last week that Mexico could implement sweeping tariff measures to fortify its domestic steel industry.
“During President [Andrés Manuel] Lopez Obrador’s term, tariffs were imposed on all countries with which we do not have a trade agreement on steel imports,” Sheinbaum Pardo said on September 5. “So, we are considering imposing, as part of the Plan Mexico we’ve proposed since we came into office, some tariffs on countries with which we do not have a trade agreement.”
Government measures and market reaction
Mexico has already undertaken trade defense measures to combat steel dumping. In April, Mexico deregistered 1,062 import licenses.
And under Sheinbaum Pardo’s Plan Mexico, several initiatives to limit the country’s dependence on steel imports have been implemented.
Sources told Fastmarkets that the measures taken by the government have caused import prices to “double” in recent months.
“Hot-rolled coil imports are down…down bad,” a Mexico-based distributor said.
According to Canacero, steel imports in July fell by 14% from the same month in 2024 to 1 million tonnes. From January through July, imports fell by 13.1% from the same period in 2024 to 6.54 million tonnes.
How tariffs affect Mexican steel prices
The steel hot-rolled coil index, delivered Monterrey, Mexico was calculated at 12,740.01 pesos ($689.92) per tonne on Thursday, September 11. It was down 1.29% from 12,906.47 pesos per tonne a week before.
Steel reinforcing bar (rebar), delivered Monterrey, Mexico was assessed between 13,800-14,150 pesos per tonne on September 11. It fell 0.71% from 14,000-14,150 a week before.
Aligning with the US ahead of USMCA negotiations
Mexico’s revision to its tariff slate is an attempt to align itself with the US ahead of the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement, one producer told Fastmarkets.
“I see this as part of a larger negotiation process: Mexico is signaling alignment with the US by tightening measures on certain imports – particularly from China – in order to strengthen its trade position and, ultimately, to secure favorable terms as the USMCA comes up for review next year,” the producer said.
“Mexico is essentially trying to reduce friction with Washington and position itself as a more reliable partner under the agreement,” the source added.
Mixed effects on the domestic Mexican steel industry
But the new measures could cause “mixed effects” on the domestic steel industry.
“On one hand, higher tariffs may help support domestic production and regional supply chains,” the source said. “On the other hand, they could create short-term challenges in terms of input costs and availability for manufacturers that have relied on lower-cost imports.”
Mexico’s additional tariffs add to an already declining trade environment, one distributor told Fastmarkets.
“I believe the [new] measures are going to affect the general market [in Mexico] a lot,” the distributor added. Previous measures by the government have “already [affected]” market dynamics in Mexico, the source said.
Have efforts to fortify the Mexican steel sector worked?
Yet the attempts to fortify the domestic industry have done little to curb price declines. “Prices keep going down,” according to the distributor.
The actions by the government should strengthen the domestic industry, the source said, “but we are not seeing signs of that.”
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Publicado originalmente por: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/mexican-steel-tariff-shifts-could-have-mixed-effects-on-industry/
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